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October 27, 2011

Ag Experts Lower Yield Forecast for Missouri Corn, Soybeans



(COLUMBIA, MO) - "The extreme growing conditions of this season have continued on thru harvest," said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Well below normal rainfall the past two months have provided little to improve this year's crops."

Based on conditions as of October 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 115 bushels, down 8 bushels per acre from a year earlier and 5 bushels per acre below the September 1 forecast.

Corn acreage did adjust upward from September, based upon current administrative data, to 3.30 million planted acres and 3.12 million acres harvested for grain. The forecasted planted acres are 5 percent above last year and 2 percent above the September 1 forecast.

Harvested acres are 4 percent above last year and up 1 percent from last month's forecast. Production is expected to be 359 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 3 percent below a year ago and 4 percent below the September 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 37 bushels per acre as of October 1, down 4.5 bushels per acre from the 2010 yield and down 2 bushels per acre from the September 1 forecast.

Planted acres are forecast at 5.35 million acres, 4 percent above a year ago and 5 percent above the September 1 forecast. Acres for harvest are forecast at 5.25 million acres, up 4 percent from last year and last month's forecast. Production is forecast at 194 million bushels, 8 percent below the 2010 estimate and down 1 percent from September 1.

United States corn production is forecast at 12.4 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down slightly from the 2010 production estimate. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 148.1 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast but down 4.7 bushels from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2005. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.9 million acres, down1 percent from the September forecast.

Soybean production in the United States is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September and down 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and down 2 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, down slightly from September and down 4 percent from 2010.


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